HP’s Pending Acquisition of Mercury – The Arms Race Continues
The rapid consolidation of the enterprise software industry continues with HP’s announcement that it has reached an agreement to acquire Mercury Interactive for $52 per share or $4.5 billion, a 33% premium to the closing price prior to the announcement. The valuation at 4.8x estimated ’06 revenues and 33x ’06 EPS estimates clearly reflects Mercury’s leadership position in its core testing business.
Implications
Underscores big is better and represents a very important addition to HP’s OpenView business, arguably moving them from being behind the curve technologically to being ahead. The move also underscores that CEO Mark Hurd is sufficiently confident in the overall improvement of HP’s core businesses as to finally address the long latent opportunity of the software business.
Ongoing significant consolidation in both systems and applications sectors underscores the grab for real estate by the bigger companies. HP’s move, coupled with recent public comments by Oracle suggesting increased interest in the systems management space is likely to further fuel speculation as to a variety of possible deal combinations. Oracle’s growing interest in systems management software as a means to both fend off Microsoft and to strengthen its competitive position versus SAP. Oracle’s recent success in dramatically expanding the breadth of its applications portfolio as well as increasing its presence in key vertical markets against SAP may further embolden Oracle in its acquisition spree.
Who’s Next?
No change in the usual group of suspects. Among the larger companies that are arguable candidates for acquisition by even bigger players, BMC Software, CA, Symantec and Quest are among those that come to mind. Other companies that could prove interesting candidates would be Compuware and Serena (which recently went private).
Who’s the Next Acquirer?
EMC’s pending deal to buy RSA, coupled with HP’s announcement, would suggest that IBM, Microsoft, Oracle and SAP prospectively could be in the market. Given the long standing practices of Microsoft and SAP to focus predominantly on internal development, we would guess that the next likely deal will be driven by either IBM or Oracle.
Is it a Good Deal for HP?
For what it's worth we think the answer is yes. While the price tag seems high, Mercury has been one of the few companies of size to show significant growth. In addition it clearly dominates the testing space and has a good vision for proactively integrating business and IT requirements.
Legal Disclaimer Nothing herein constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy any security. Readers are advised to review their own financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives as to any investment. Information provided here is based, in part, from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, although no representations or guarantees can be provided as to its accuracy or completeness.Blue Atlas Management, LLC is our official business entity for consulting related work. In addition, we also have a website for those of you who are interested in learning more a little more about our services http://www.blueatlasmanagement.com/. Please feel free to contact us at jmendelson@blueatlasmanagement.com, with any comments or questions.
Implications
Underscores big is better and represents a very important addition to HP’s OpenView business, arguably moving them from being behind the curve technologically to being ahead. The move also underscores that CEO Mark Hurd is sufficiently confident in the overall improvement of HP’s core businesses as to finally address the long latent opportunity of the software business.
Ongoing significant consolidation in both systems and applications sectors underscores the grab for real estate by the bigger companies. HP’s move, coupled with recent public comments by Oracle suggesting increased interest in the systems management space is likely to further fuel speculation as to a variety of possible deal combinations. Oracle’s growing interest in systems management software as a means to both fend off Microsoft and to strengthen its competitive position versus SAP. Oracle’s recent success in dramatically expanding the breadth of its applications portfolio as well as increasing its presence in key vertical markets against SAP may further embolden Oracle in its acquisition spree.
Who’s Next?
No change in the usual group of suspects. Among the larger companies that are arguable candidates for acquisition by even bigger players, BMC Software, CA, Symantec and Quest are among those that come to mind. Other companies that could prove interesting candidates would be Compuware and Serena (which recently went private).
Who’s the Next Acquirer?
EMC’s pending deal to buy RSA, coupled with HP’s announcement, would suggest that IBM, Microsoft, Oracle and SAP prospectively could be in the market. Given the long standing practices of Microsoft and SAP to focus predominantly on internal development, we would guess that the next likely deal will be driven by either IBM or Oracle.
Is it a Good Deal for HP?
For what it's worth we think the answer is yes. While the price tag seems high, Mercury has been one of the few companies of size to show significant growth. In addition it clearly dominates the testing space and has a good vision for proactively integrating business and IT requirements.
Legal Disclaimer Nothing herein constitutes an offer or solicitation to buy any security. Readers are advised to review their own financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives as to any investment. Information provided here is based, in part, from sources believed to be accurate and reliable, although no representations or guarantees can be provided as to its accuracy or completeness.Blue Atlas Management, LLC is our official business entity for consulting related work. In addition, we also have a website for those of you who are interested in learning more a little more about our services http://www.blueatlasmanagement.com/. Please feel free to contact us at jmendelson@blueatlasmanagement.com, with any comments or questions.
posted by jcm at 9:04 AM
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